August 2022 – eco gloom mounts

I am writing this post after ‘the UK changed’ when Queen Elizabeth II (RIP) died. It describes the month of August, which now feels odd to be writing about, so I will keep it very brief.

August is in increasingly holiday month in the UK. French style. Getting work done is difficult, some restaurants close, my hairdresser shuts, and so on.

I didn’t travel abroad at all this summer. And I can’t say I really miss it. I think having the Coastal Folly to explore and Heathrow hassle back in the headlines, not to mention eye watering air fares, seems to have destroyed my travel ‘libido’.

I can’t remember a better month to be ‘stuck’ in the UK though. The UK moved into drought conditions, but the temperatures were lovely. London was markedly hotter than the coast – London was too hot to really enjoy, but the Coastal Folly saw 23-27C for two or three weeks on the trot. Lovely.

Perfect holiday conditions, in England of all places

Energy worries climaxed in the UK at the end of August, when OFGEM announced the Q4 price cap – which is about 80% higher than the already-high prices. Almost immediately it was clear the government would need to do something about this, but at the end of August we awaited confirmation that Truss was to be the new PM and in the meantime the government sat on its hands.

Meanwhile, elsewhere, markets ended the month down a bit – particularly bonds. FTSE wasn’t too badly off, with energy/mining companies helping to prop it up.

Market movements in August 2022
Continue reading “August 2022 – eco gloom mounts”

July 2022 – a red hot month

July has been travel month. Not for me, in fact. But London has been full of visitors – and Mrs FvL and I have been inundated. So much so, that it has been handy to have the Coastal Folly for overspill. But London has a lot to offer and it has been fun doing some touristy stuff.

Summer in London

Visitors in mid July saw the hottest temperatures ever recorded in the UK. London saw 40C for its first time. I confess I was down at the Coastal Folly at the hottest point, where sea breezes kept temperatures to a lovely 30C. So I missed the bring-your-cat-to-the-office mayhem going on up in town.

London weather, mid July 2022

(UPDATED: it was hot in Downing Street too, with Johnson finally resigning early in July. That is too well covered for me to add any value here)

The markets had positive momentum throughout July. VWRL, Vanguard’s world equity ETF, was up throughout the month and ended up 6.2%. Bonds took a bit longer to rise but from mid month they too rose significantly. With the 25% leverage I’m targeting, my markets rose on average just over 6% – the fifth best result in at least 7 years.

Market movements in July 2022
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June 2022 – drawdown breach!

June was gloomy.

Not in London, which is lively, crowded even – and a delight to see. Pavements are busy, restaurants are proving tricky to get bookings in, the river is heaving. I even managed to get to ‘the beach’:

Sand, tides, sunshine – locally in London

I managed to spend a bit of time down around the Coastal Folly too. I’m still finding my rhythm having two homes but so far it is going pretty well. A London kitchen project is running late / badly which gives us plenty of excuses to be down by the coast.

Sandbanks, tides, sunshine – down by the coast

The UK saw a week disrupted by rail strikes but with Working From Home now an option and so many cycle/etc options it didn’t feel too disruptive for me. It was interesting though how positively the union leader Mick Lynch came across in the media and I think if we do find ourselves in a year of employee-driven strikes he will deserve the credit/blame for it. The RMT appears to be asking for about 9% pay increases for train workers. Drivers are coming up next, apparently, along with GPs (asking for 30%!). We are rapidly getting away from ‘inflation is just spiking up temporarily’ to ‘well, if they’re getting it, then I want it’ and that could take years – and a much more competent government – to shake out.

And it is this inflation gloom which is suddenly pervasive. Not just in the UK, though the UK does appear to be taking a particular bruising. Markets got hammered in June and, lest anybody forgets, they hadn’t had a good run of things earlier in the year either.

Continue reading “June 2022 – drawdown breach!”