November 2018 returns

Doesn’t October feel like a long time ago? Here in the UK it does, at any rate.

In the USA we saw Trump lose the House (which follows population closely) but gain in the Senate (which follows land/space more closely).  He’s here to stay, folks, and he represents a sizeable portion of the USA – like it or not.

Image result for donald trump by state 2018 mid term results

Likewise in the UK, while the polls have shifted slightly in favour of Remain, despite everything, a sizeable portion of the UK (over 40%) appears to still prefer to Leave the EU, almost whatever happens.  We have a messed up political situation, like it or not.

In the meantime markets have been rumbling around.  At one point mid month I breached my maximum drawdown, and was mentally preparing a blog post about it.  But in the end the US markets had a last minute jump up, for no particular reasons, with some of the most bruised stocks from Ouch-tober showing the sharpest gains.

As it turns out, my diversified portfolio’s large exposure to the USA has helped me turned in a positive performance this month – though it could easily have gone the other way.

Australia deserves a mention.  I haven’t been following it closely this month but its currency gained over 3% on the pound, but its equity index lost almost the same value.  I assume this is a pure currency move, with overseas investors holding the value of the equity markets stable in USD/etc terms.  I haven’t been following Oz closely this month so any additional insights (from @grasmi, perhaps?) would be helpful.

UK bonds also took something of a tumble.  The ‘index’ I track is the corporate bond benchmark, but in fact my fixed income exposure is now more Treasuries than corporates so I should revisit this soon.  In any case, both were hit – my Index Linked Gilt holding was a significant drag on my portfolio.

2018 11 FIREvLondon markets weighted

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Ouch-tober 2018

I have to take my hat off to Theresa May for her performance in October.  Dancing (well, jiving, at least).  On stage.  To kick off her make-or-break appearance at the Tory conference.  That lady has balls.

The big news this month has been foreign.  Alien, even, in the case of another lady with balls – Jodie Whittaker (“Why are you calling me Madam?”) breaking the Doctor’s glass ceiling.

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We’ve had Saudi Arabia in the news for much of the month, for some gruesome reasons. We’ve had foreign governments getting a whipping in Germany or, Royal visit notwithstanding, losing their majority in Oz.  We’ve had the USA administration pulling out of a Russian nuclear arms treaty.

And of course, we’ve had the major geopolitical upheaval that is a new phone from the most important FAANG.

I suppose a quick recap of the worldwide developments would, on balance, suggest downward pressure on the markets.

I really don’t think however that Doctor Who, returning to Earth after a prolonged absence and reviewing  recent developments, would expect such a brutal, consistent month in the equity markets.  Everywhere.

October saw the biggest market drops since my monthly portfolio tracking began in January 2013.  In fact The Economist says October saw one of the top 10 biggest monthly falls in the S&P 500 since the 08/09 crisis.

2018 10 biggest monthly falls Economist

S&P 500 monthly performance; biggest declines since Jan 2008

The Sunday Times shows the worst months for FTSE since the 1960; October 18 isn’t one of the worst 10 but most of the worst ones were more than 30 years ago!

Worst months for UK stock market since 1966 (Source: Sunday Times)

What was clear, as October drew on, was that everything seemed to be falling.  Asian markets have had a tough year already, largely due to Trump trade spats.  European equities have similarly faced trade headwinds.  But now the USA, Oz etc fell sharply too. The Sunday Times has a nice graph in fact:

How FTSE compared with other global stockmarket indices in October 2018 (Source: Sunday Times)

 

Most noticeable for some of us was the big drop in tech stocks.  Some FAANGs had fallen 20% at points; only AAPL seemed relatively immune from the sharp change in sentiment.

2018 10 FAANG stocks

Amidst the hysteria, you’d have been hard pushed to notice that bonds were relatively unaffected by this carnage.  UK corporate bonds actually went up almost half a percent.  For once, correlations didn’t all converge.

2018 11 02 Tweet wow bonds

Currency movements deserve a brief mention too.  For UK investors October was another month of big Brexit-driven swings.  The pound rose against the USD above £1:$1.32 at one point, before falling to £1:$1.27 where it pretty much finished the month.  The dollar won the October currency battle, which took the edge off the S&P being the biggest casualty in the equity contest.

2018 10 FIRE v London market returns weights

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September 2018: whiplash

The major UK news in September was the Salzburg EU summit, which saw the UK PM become a victim of political whiplash.  This affected the markets, but not entirely predictably.  If you’ve been asleep in September, you’ll struggle to see the ‘surprise’ summit result in the financial charts.

The Trump saga was preoccupied with the Supreme Court last month.  This doesn’t obviously translate into market sentiment, thank goodness.

Image result for whiplash cartoon

Nonetheless, from a UK markets point of view, September had its own form of whiplash.

Taking just the UK, for instance, consider equities (FTSE-100) and sterling. FTSE-100 veered between 7550 and 7250, a swing of 4%. By contrast, the S&P-500 nudged between 289 and 295 – about half as much change in the month. Meanwhile, GBP:USD veered between 1.282 and 1.328, a swing of almost 4% as well.

The FTSE-100 and GBP:USD are correlated, of course.  The USD is the ‘currency of the world’, and FTSE-100 companies mostly are global businesses, trading heavily in USD.  So when the GBP falls, the FTSE-100 goes up – these are the same companies, and valuing them in USD makes in many ways more sense than valuing them in pounds.

But the total swing of the FTSE, measured in dollars, was over 5% in the month.  And back again.  This means any particular snapshot of returns feels very arbitrary indeed. Those of you who ignore month to month movements are definitely on the high ground here.

Anyway, be that as it may, as at the end of September FTSE was up just over 1%.  Sterling itself rose too, about half as much.  And, so it happens, so did the S&P.

2018 09 FIRE v London markets

Bonds, on the other hand, are heading down.  With rate rises firmly on the agenda, the economy ‘booming’ (ish), now isn’t a very bonds-friendly time.  Or at least that is my superficial read on the situation.

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