With all the Neil Woodford news at the moment, you could have missed the fact that world equity markets are up over 12% so far this year. In GBP, at least. This rising tide has taken me over an important high water mark – my portfolio has recovered to where it was at before I raided it to buy the Dream Home.
For those of you who missed the whole stressful saga, I bought my Dream Home, on a whim, in December 2015/January 2016. To make this more complicated, I ended up funding the purchase very significantly through a margin loan – basically a loan secured on my equity portfolio, rather than a loan secured on the property.
Buying the Dream Home needed me to sell almost half my investment portfolio. I was doing this in the middle of a minor market correction (global equities were 15% off their peak), which felt like a very painful time to sell. In the end, by borrowing over £2m I was able to keep £2m+ invested that I would otherwise have sold.
In those first few weeks after I completed I was pretty exposed. If the market had dropped 30% I would have been panicking. Fortunately, as hindsight shows, it turned out very differently; world equities are up almost 60% since then. Brexit has ‘helped’ here, because the sharp fall in the GBP after the June 2016 referendum meant my (mostly overseas) investments sharply gained versus my margin loan; this is not easy to see in the graph but it is there if you look closely.
With a combination of my investment returns, some liquidity windfalls, my net position (of the liquid investment portfolio, which ignores properties, illiquid holdings, etc) is up around 90% since my Dream Home purchase. I’ve paid down over half the margin loan, and my leverage now is at a very modest level that carries (I believe) very low risk. Thanks to this leverage, in fact my total gross holdings are now bigger than ever before. My net position isn’t quite at record levels, but it is well within the margin of error – and ahead of September 2015, a few weeks before the fateful Dream Home decision.
As an aside, the rental income I’ve received from the old house (which has become an investment asset, albeit not one that I include within my investment portfolio on this blog) has not been a big factor here, because in practice I’ve used those funds to both pay for the old house costs, as well as fund the significant running costs of the Dream Home.
I didn’t anticipate recovering my investment portfolio in under 4 years, without selling the old home. It feels good to know that my money can work so hard in such a short time. So, time to buy another one? Dream on!
Idling away an hour on the long weekend, I found myself examining whether my mental model of how I invest is actually honest.
In particular I have an investment philosophy of holding for the long term, of buying (not selling). Is that true? How often do I in fact sell things?
My philosophy is to minimise fees wherever possible. But it is also to reinvest dividends manually, not automatically, so that I can rebalance as I go – rather than ‘high buying high, and low reinvesting little’. Moreover, my minimum amount for a trade in Mrs FvL’s account is only £1000 – the amount of cash that must accumulate before we reinvest it. So my philosophy leads to me making plenty of transactions, for which Mrs FvL pays full price. Does this lead to high trading expenses?
To answer my own questions I did the following analysis:
- I looked only at Mrs FvL’s portfolio history. I manage her portfolio using the same investment philosophy, but in a simpler/cleaner way, as my own. I track all of her transactions in one place, unlike my own funds. And though her asset allocation is slightly different (lower weight USA, more domestic bias), this shouldn’t materially affect a transaction analysis.
- I looked at the last tax year – i.e. the 12 months to 5 April 2019. This was a year in which I moved significant funds into Mrs FvL’s accounts, so there was more money to invest than normal – more than just dividends.
Mrs FvL’s portfolio has around 80 unique holdings in it. This is fewer than the ~200 in my portfolio, but is nonetheless highly diversified. Half of the value is in passive ETFs/index funds. The largest holding (an Australian Equity ETF) is about 8% of the total value, the biggest single stock is about 3%, and the smallest holding is worth about £2k.
Here is what I found:Read the rest of this entry »
This post is a response to @SavingNinja’s Thought Experiment #4.
@SavingNinja poses the following challenge, and asks for a ‘stream of consciousness’ reply:
You wake up one rainy morning and after checking on your accounts you find out that you’ve been ‘wiped-out’ by a cybercriminal. You’ve lost all of the money and assets that you’ve ever owned and you can’t get them back. What will you do?Thought Experiment #4 by @SavingNinja
My first reaction is to clarify exactly what I have lost. I don’t accept the premise that I have lost all the money/assets I’ve ever owned; for starters, I’ve spent some of those! So for purposes of this discussion I’ve lost all the assets that can be retrieved via online / written instructions to banks/brokers/etc.
This loss is catastrophically bad for me. It amounts to:
- £100k+ of cash in various accounts
- £millions of publicly quoted investments in my own numerous brokerage accounts
- £00ks of assets in Mrs FvL’s accounts and brokerages that I have access to
SavingNinja tells me I can’t get them back. I am not going to take that at face value and am going to find a very competent lawyer, agree a performance-related fee structure, and send them hard at everybody that moves. I am going to consider going public with my predicament and creating an almighty fuss that my banks, brokers, etc will find embarassing at least. But, for the sake of argument, SavingNinja proves right and I can’t retrieve more than, say a few £000s of goodwill gestures.
I do however have a few remaining assets.Read the rest of this entry »