FIRE v London

Compounding, type II

2024-10-282024-10-28 FIRE v London1 Comment

Supposedly Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world. Certainly the wonder of compound annual growth rates is something I feel quite viscerally, the more so with each month that I track my portfolio. But I’ve been struck recently by a radical improvement in my portfolio’s dividend income, far in excess of the portfolio’s return, that has occurred thanks to the margin loans I’m using. For anybody curious about margin loans, this blog post shines a light on what’s happening.

While my portfolio has grown 14%…..

As a quick visit to my Monthly Returns page can see, my portfolio has returned around 20% over the last twelve months (to September 2024 inclusive). This is a good, but not exceptional period over the 10+ years I’ve been tracking my portfolio – which has returned just over 9% p.a. since inception over 10 years ago.

As it happens, despite the underlying returns of around 20% my own portfolio (and I’m excluding Mrs FvL’s in this analysis) has only grown in size by 14% over this twelve month period, thanks to some significant withdrawals to pay tax bills, make ‘off balance sheet’ investments, and such like.

… my net investment income has grown 56%

What caught my eye is that my expected investment income, something I record monthly, has grown 56% during the same time period.

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Sep ’24: Ominous politics, juicy economics

2024-10-13 FIRE v London1 Comment

September was fairly action-packed.

I enjoyed getting out on a friend’s boat around Poole and the Solent.

I made it to the Labour party conference in Liverpool, which was fascinating albeit wet. I am apparently firmly in the tax-raising sights of the Government, but I wasn’t the only potential target at the conference.

I enjoyed some work drinks with an elevated view of the Thames.

I was also invited to a formal dinner at an Oxford college, Harry Potter style.

And I took an out of town visitor around some of the sights in London town.

Markets in September 2024

I didn’t pay enormous attention to the markets in September. The pound continued to rise. Equities generally were quite strong, though the wider mood in the UK is gloomy – with the new Labour government taking a ‘freebies’ hammering in the media, and business fearing the worst from the new government’s budget due on 30 October. Inflation news was mostly for the better, which helped bonds.

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August ’24: From triumph to tragedy

2024-09-07 FIRE v London1 Comment

Looking back on the month, it was more eventful than Augusts are reputed to be.

In the UK we are getting used to our new government. And, in some cases, violently testing its boundaries with some summer rioting. We’ve seen some dreadful street behaviour, frequently of a racist / anti-Muslim nature. Thankfully it hasn’t really impacted London, where racism is mercifully rare. The street protests closest to me were jubilant Bangladeshi crowds celebrating the overthrow of Prime Minister Hasina.

Across the channel, the Olympics provided some sporting entertainment. I didn’t make it over there, though, and only watched a couple of events. It was good to see Team GB do creditably well, though beaten on several measures by the Australians and even the Netherland for Pete’s sake. On any sort measure, Europe (inc Team GB, naturellement) thrashed everybody else, though that isn’t how even the FT reported it, and India did typically dreadfully.

Towards the end of the month came the truly horrific tragedy of the sinking of British entrepreneur Mike Lynch’s yacht Bayesian. I don’t think there are any wider lessons for me in this tragedy but somehow it felt very relatable. And to pile mindblowing co-incidence on horrific tragedy, his former business partner (and co defendant in US Federal Court) died earlier that week when hit by a car. If there was a conspiracy at work, it was a particularly devious one, but it is a terrible end to an extraordinary story.

Markets in August 2024

The markets have been nervy and volatile in August. VWRL, Vanguard’s global equity index tracker, was at £102/share on 30 July. During August it dipped to £98, and rose to £104, before finishing on £103. So the signal of the monthly numbers strips out a lot of noise.

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