Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs

FIRE v London5 Comments

What’s in the news?

Talking about the news in March, given what’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless.

We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front.

We finished March waiting for ‘liberation day’, April 2nd, when Trump unleashed a basically bonkers cocktail of tariffs on every country in the world – except Russia, of course.

What’s going on with me?

In the meantime, life goes on.

I attended a funeral of a long time friend and neighbour in north London.

I visited a rather bizarre concert in the Royal Festival Hall.

And I visited hospital for my first MRI scan, participating in a clinical research programme at University College London Hospital. I was impressed, I have to say, and grateful that I live within relatively easy reach of this excellent hospital.

I also visited Dorset – Studland to be precise – and went yomping up to Old Harry Rocks, the start of the Jurassic Coast. It’s a beautiful part of the world, and less than 3 hours from London Waterloo.

Markets in March

My markets’ movements in March 2025

Markets generally drooped in March, particularly the US’s S&P500. Enthusiasm/animal spirits from Trump’s election win are being replaced by trepidation / concern about Trump not being good for the US economy after all. The dollar, and the AUD, fell against the pound.

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Feb ’25: The top comes off

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What’s in the news?

The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it.

From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened

  • Tariffs. Lots of chat, lots of yo-yoing. Not good for larger businesses, possibly quite good for smaller ones?
  • War, lots of yo-yoing. Might it/they stop? Or might Russia become more terrifying?
  • Defence spending is clearly going up, though I suspect by less than the claimed amounts.
  • Longer term, the life of the US Dollar as reserve currency has shortened.

What’s going on with me?

My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city with the most caves (anybody know?), I had a short break in the Canaries, I enjoyed some time on the South Coast, I went to a play in East London. Busy, good busy.

Markets in Feb

Vanguard World Equities (VWRL) fell 3.5% in February, but UK Equities (which are <4% of World Equities) rose 2%. US Bond aggregates were up over 2%, though international (non UK/US/Aus) bonds dropped 1%. So your market benchmark very much depended on which markets you are benchmarked against. But the top does seem to have come off the US S&P ‘bubble’… let’s see how it unfolds in the next few weeks.

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Buy to let: RIP

FIRE v London17 Comments

Last year was the end of an era. I sold the Modern Flat, after owning it for over 20 years.

A bit of history

I ended up with my Modern Flat in that common way that many ‘accidental’ landlords have. It was my first rung on the property ownership ladder. Until it was time to get onto the second rung. I thought I’d live there for several years – though in practice I lived there less time than I had originally expected.

The flat itself is a new build flat in central London, to a reasonable spec. It is slightly bigger than average, but has no outdoor space whatsoever. I loved living there, albeit that was a long time ago. It had a great reception space but rather cramped bedrooms with insufficient storage. This suited me fine – bedrooms are for sleeping in, and living rooms are where you live. The building had a residents’ association, a management company, and a porter. I bought the flat on a long 200+ year lease, and had to sign up to both a ground rent (doubling every 25 years) and a service charge (set by the management company).

I managed to climb onto the second rung without selling the Modern Flat. Instead, I kept it, ever since, I rented it out. This isn’t, strictly, a ‘buy to let’ property in that I didn’t buy it to let it.

I haven’t strictly treated my Modern Flat as an investment. As an illiquid asset, I don’t track it as part of my invested portfolio. Nonetheless, my decision to sell it was mostly financially driven.

Buy to let financials – the theory

The case for being a landlord, as I see it, has three key financial arguments in its favour:

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