Tag: investment

What’s the ideal level of leverage?

FIRE v London18 Comments

I’ve used portfolio leverage to help me buy two properties in the last 10 years.

To recap the most recent episode, very briefly, it goes as follows:

  1. In December 2021, I borrowed about 25% of my portfolio’s value to buy my Coastal Folly. I targeted reducing this to a 20% ‘loan-to-value’ (LTV) as soon as practicable.
  2. Only a few weeks later, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of the Ukraine. This disrupted the stock market, and energy markets. The energy market disruption led to a spike in inflation, which caused central banks to hike base rates. It also caused my LTV to go up, not down.
  3. I steadily paid off a bit of the loan, but the higher rates meant that my interest expenses went up 2.5x over the following 20 months.
  4. Since then however my portfolio has gained in value, and my loan has reduced, leaving it today at about 13% of the portfolio value. My interest costs are about 1.5x the January 2022 starting point, which is mildly annoying but very manageable.
  5. I’m left feeling firmly under control, with a relatively low level of risk. The two key risks that I need to consider are
    1. a hike in interest rates – which feels very unlikely
    2. a plummeting stock market – this feels a lot more likely, particularly in October 2025. But with my loan being only 12.5% of the portfolio value, even if the portfolio suddenly halved in value (a very rare and unlikely scenario) the loan would still amount to only 20% of the reduced portfolio value.

This leaves me wondering what the long term idealised level of leverage is for my portfolio.

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July ’25: New high watermark

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There wasn’t a huge amount to report from July.

Politically/economically I fear the most important event in the UK was the Labour government’s failure to enact its intended welfare reforms. This leaves the government a) unable to control spending b) unable to nudge the economy towards more jobs and more growth and c) facing politically expensive tax rises later in the year. For now, this hasn’t impacted the stats or portfolio very much, but it will have more of an impact over the next few years.

Meanwhile, it was a nice pleasant summer month in the UK. I managed to get to Wimbledon for the semi finals, which was a delight. I also explored the bird sanctuary at Arne, near Poole, and other bits of Dorset. I even visited Italy, which was surprisingly good value for money.

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June 2025: Show times

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I really want to stop mentioning Trump.

Even when he sends troops into LA, one of my favourite cities.

But when he launches 30kt bombs on Iran, it is very hard to avoid talking about him.

In the context of what Trump’s been up to, the welfare reform screw-ups by the Labour government seem almost laughably trivial. Even though they make my blood boil and, I think, will have more impact on our economy than Trump’s militarism will have on the USA’s.

We’ve had some lovely weather in June, with the lovely long evenings to enjoy too. I’ve had some memorable London experiences, including a visit to Parliament, some high altitude fun and two (very different) shows – one of which even saw me on stage in the Barbican Theatre! I’ve also had some fun on the coast – including a very memorable evening in Poole harbour.

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