I had a decent break over the New Year period, and whiled away far too much time reading blogs/etc. I felt very up to date, at the time. Now of course I can’t remember what actually happened in January – proving the point of Nassim Taleb/others.
Overall I don’t think January was that notable for world politics/markets. Davos saw the usual flurry of policy-making headlines, but nothing stood out for me.
Closer to home Brexit dominated the news media, with as expected the UK government’s EU deal being rejected by a thumping majority in parliament. For some reason markets have reacted fairly favourably to these developments, I think because they appear to suggest ‘no deal’ looks very unlikely. I can’t say I am as sanguine, but in any case the pound rose to $1.33 at some point and ended the month over 2% up against the USD.
Equities recovered over half of their Q4 falls. Everywhere. Especially some tech stocks (Amazon up 13%, Facebook up 25% (!)). Even bonds rose gently. Sentiment has changed dramatically, without any particular data or hard facts to point to. Sigh.
Continue reading “January 2019: many happy returns”

