May 2022 – markets nearing my max drawdown

Australia has general elections every three years or so, and just had its latest one last month. How you can sensibly govern a country when your next election is either 1 or 2 years away always puzzles me, but the Australians have made a decent fist of it over the last 30 years – certainly better than the UK has.

Despite the frequency of elections, it is an unusual Prime Minister in recent times who makes it through to the next general election unscathed – Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott etc have all been replaced while in situ. In any case, ScoMo made it to the election, but then got replaced by the opposition – Tony Albanese, a centre left union figure. While his win wasn’t a big surprise, the strength of the defeat of ScoMo’s parties was a surprise. Some folks I know are horrified, but at this distance, he looks pretty similar to me.

Australian general election: One out, one in

The markets don’t seem to have much to report. Somehow I suspect not much will change – let the next less-than-3 years roll on.

Australian equities, bonds (cyan Vanguard line) and selected stocks, last 6 months

Meanwhile, up in the Northern hemisphere, London’s Crossrail Elizabeth line finally opened (it’s great!), and the markets have continued the volatile decline they have been on for a year now. My portfolio dropped 7% in January. February fell too, though the fall was recovered in March. Then April fell 7%. And, at points, markets were down almost 7% in May – see the S&P graph below.

Performance of S&P 500, shown as growth of (hypothetical) USD$10k, during May 2022
Continue reading “May 2022 – markets nearing my max drawdown”

Apr 2022 – London’s swinging, but Tech is down

April was a funny month in the UK. Holidays were back, with a vengeance. Everybody seemed desperate to catch up on overdue skiing, Spanish sun, holiday home action. It was hard getting business done over Easter to a level I have not seen before.

But once Easter was over, boy was London back. The school run traffic is back to not-seen-since-pandemic levels (in fact arguably above – see chart below). Restaurants are hard to book. Theatres are busy. This is all on Tuesdays-Thursdays, note, not on Mondays (which are the new Sundays). And lurgy-ridden public transport is still emptier than pre-covid. The tube is used by workers, but cars are used by school mums. But all in all, a pleasant change is in the air.

London car traffic is back above pre-pandemic levels
London’s public transport remains 20-40% below pre-pandemic levels

Nobody has told the FX markets, with the USD up almost 5% against the GBP. In one month. And up even more against the Euro and the AUD. I don’t quite follow this – though it is obviously something to do with relative inflation expectations and the attitude to the Fed.

In the middle of this, the stock markets are taking a bath, and I am getting very wet.

Most notable for me is that I have lost over £100k just on my AMZN position alone, which finished April just under $2500/share (down from an all time peak of around $3800). Being overweight tech, even ‘blue chip’ tech, has not been a good place to be. And being leveraged at the same time has, literally, compounded the misery.

My portfolio contained, at the start of 2022, over $1m worth of just 4 ‘blue chip’ tech stocks. Which between them have shed over 20% on average in 2022 alone. This stuff is seriously harming my financial health.

Continue reading “Apr 2022 – London’s swinging, but Tech is down”

Mar 2022 – Ukraine crisis, erm, boosts equities

We started March in the midst of a war in Europe (or, for my Russian readers, a ‘special military operation’). Scenarios such as a rapid Ukrainian defeat, or alternatively escalation to a nuclear confrontation were being discussed in the media.

We ended March with Ukraine very much still in the fight. In fact Russia has for now given up on taking the capital Kyiv. Nuclear confrontation feels less likely than it did a month ago. But, as with all wars, it’s going to last longer than we feared.

Map showing advancement of Russian invasion into Ukraine, 6 weeks in

All of this is not at all good news for energy costs, supply chains, or the wider economy. It won’t be long before a major European/N American economy reports double digit inflation.

Given this context, it is no surprise that bond markets dipped significantly in March – dropping 3-4% across the board. But there is a welcome surprise of a resounding rise in equity markets in the month.

Continue reading “Mar 2022 – Ukraine crisis, erm, boosts equities”