FIRE v London

July 2019: 3rd best month yet

2019-08-042019-08-04 FIRE v London5 Comments

Boris is bashing the pound, Trump is bashing the global economy. Who’d invest in anything, in this environment?

Well, when the Brexiteers pummel the pound, us globally diversified investors tend to do alright – provided we measure our progress in pounds! And FTSE-100 does alright too. This month was no exception; the GBP fell over 4% versus the USD, and FTSE rose over 2% partly as a consequence.

Bonds went up too, particularly in Europe (inc UK, obvs) – for reasons I’m not sure about.

Elsewhere was a bit more of a mixed bag – Oz equities steamed ahead, European/Asian equities sagged, the US shuffled forward.

Currency movements alone moved the markets I’m in up 2.7%, in GBP terms. Though the UK FTSE rose over 2%, my UK equity weighting is relatively low, so the diversified markets I’m in rose ‘only’ 1.1% in their local currencies during July (more thanks to bonds, than equities!). Combining the two effects means my market benchmark was a gain of 3.9% in July. Such months don’t happen often.

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Angel investing (1): 10 top tips for a virgin

2019-07-30 FIRE v London7 Comments

Sooner or later, it happens.

Maybe your superstar young colleague quits his (it is almost always his, not her) well-paid job, to start his own company. And gently lets it be known he is raising a bit of money, with tax breaks….

Maybe you have just had your biggest yet annual bonus, and the tax consequences are making you sick. Your mate at work mentions a startup he is putting money into, which “reduces his income tax bill”. So you google ‘investments that reduce your income tax bill’….

Maybe your mate’s boy wonder kid is setting up his second business, and in the first one your mate made five times his money, so presumably on his second time around he’ll make even more….

Maybe you have been reading the weekend papers columns about angel investing….

Maybe your IFA has suggested if you don’t like VCT funds, you could consider EIS funds….

Or maybe you’ve sold a business, and not very long after some of those great characters you hired are starting to branch out on their own. They wouldn’t mind some help, and that money you made wouldn’t have been all possible without these folks, so it’s only right to put a bit of it back to work in their hands….

Sooner or later, an angel investing opportunity will cross your door. After all, you’re financially savvy, you’re in the London eco-system, and you are intellectually curious.

I first started angel investing almost twenty years ago. I have made a number of angel investments since then. I’ve made some mistakes, and I’ve had some successes.

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Why the market’s about to drop – and what I’m doing about it

2019-07-242019-07-25 FIRE v London28 Comments

This time is different.

We’ve been at market highs before. Staring at unprecedented multiples, unhinged presidents, central bankers finally increasing rates, comedians winning elections in G8 economies, the first serious trade wars in decades, and more.

We’ve heard how a big drop is imminent before. We’ve muttered, whispered, tutted, gawped and clicked our tongues.

Yes, as we predicted those times, market corrections often followed soon after (except, just a couple of times, when they didn’t).

But this time really is different.

This time my portfolio is running red hot, at a new high water mark.

Amazon’s just crossed $2000/share. $2000, per solitary share.

Apparently US company earnings are falling, and, not unsurprisingly if so, dividends are heading down. This hasn’t happened before, since, well, just before the last market correction/crash/similar.

In the UK, the (120,000) people have spoken and we have a new Prime Minister. And Brexit no deal/etc looming on Hallowe’en’s day. As if the world economy wasn’t giving us enough to think about.

So, obviously, now is the time to run for the hills.