How’s my $100m tax-free account developing?

About a year ago, I wrote a post explaining why there is apparently over a 10% chance that my & Mrs FvL’s tax-free ISA accounts top $100m in our lifetime.  This took the £330k lifetime ISA savings we’d amassed to date, assumed 1) we never dipped into the pot, 2) that we maintained an above average risk preference, and 3) that the UK tax rules remained unchanged.  About one year on, how are we faring?

The last year hasn’t gone very smoothly.  Our ISAs performance was about -5%.  This knocks a £330k pot by about £16k. This performance was worse than the market average, but not by much. The resource crash and the China/Asian downturn were starkly visible in our ISA portfolio, with BHP Billiton down 31%, BP down 13%, Henderson Asian Dividend UT down 16%, and HSBC down 23%.  Pearson, down 37%, certainly didn’t help either. Isolated gainers including iShares Euro High Yield Bonds (+10%), Zoopla (+40%) weren’t numerous enough to compensate.

We both moved the maximum permitted topup into our ISAs, of £15240 each.  Even though a £330k pot sounds like a lot, in fact it is small enough that a 5% drop in value is less than the amount we can top it up.  As the pot grows, eventually this won’t be true; a £1m pot dropping 5% would fall by £50k, which dwarfs an individual’s annual allowance.  But for now, by topping up our ISAs to the maximum allowed we grew the pot.

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My March 2016 returns

My invested portfolio posted returns of 3.3% in March.  What’s not to like?

What happened in March?

  • The Brexit debate rumbled on, with opinion polls still suggesting a very narrow majority to remain in but the pound remaining under pressure.
  • Donald Trump looked increasingly likely to clinch the Republican nomination, and be beaten in November by the less popular Clinton.
  • After a Tata Steel announcement it looks likely the UK will end volume steel manufacturing with the loss of 4000-40000 jobs.
  • The UK chancellor announced he’d use the backs of the disabled to help balance the budget. Then his mind was changed by, among other things, a cabinet member’s resignation. He also reduced capital gains tax, extended entrepreneurs’ relief and invented Lifetime ISAs.
  • The UK current account (the amount of money coming in/out of the country per day) reached its highest deficit ever – ie more foreign money is entering the country than ever. Apparently this is a bad thing.

What this meant was that the pound continued to be weak, albeit more against the euro than the us dollar. Equities rose quite strongly in March: UK equities rose about 2%, with US equities up over 5%.  And bonds rose too – UK ones by 3%.  In that environment it’s hard to lose money.

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