Housing, pt 10: Stress testing

I’m nearing the end of my Dream Home purchasing odyssey. In fact I have mustered the cash needed to buy the home, and wired it to my lawyer, in good time for completion.  Hooray!

What I haven’t quite found yet is the cash for the stamp duty, but I have another month to find that and think the market volatility could help. In any case you can see in my graph below that I have obtained over 100% of the purchase price – I am only a few % away from where I need to be including transaction fees etc.

2016 01 23 FIREvLondon Dream Home liquidation schedule

This means that right now I am the proud owner of over £1m of new debt.

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Stock market bloodbath?

I’ve been paying close attention to equity markets over recent weeks, as I rebalance my portfolio to help me to buy a house.  I’m struck by how badly numerous stocks have done since their 2015 highs.

The major markets overall are essentially flat on a year ago (UK down 1%, US up 1%, Australia up 3%).

But calling 2015 flat ignores the fact that during the year we were treated to some significant gains, before sharp drops in August and December.  FTSE-100 breached 7100 (now at 5960), S&P got to 2130 (now 1923), ASX-200 rose 10% to almost 6000 (now 4925) and DAX reached 12,400 (now 10,000). Overall then the markets are 15-20% down from their peak. This decline is between a third and half of the declines experienced in 1987, 2000-2 and 2008-9 (the UK copped it worst in 2000 and the US’s worst bath was 2008-9).

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