Feb ’25: The top comes off

What’s in the news?

The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it.

From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened

  • Tariffs. Lots of chat, lots of yo-yoing. Not good for larger businesses, possibly quite good for smaller ones?
  • War, lots of yo-yoing. Might it/they stop? Or might Russia become more terrifying?
  • Defence spending is clearly going up, though I suspect by less than the claimed amounts.
  • Longer term, the life of the US Dollar as reserve currency has shortened.

What’s going on with me?

My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city with the most caves (anybody know?), I had a short break in the Canaries, I enjoyed some time on the South Coast, I went to a play in East London. Busy, good busy.

Markets in Feb

Vanguard World Equities (VWRL) fell 3.5% in February, but UK Equities (which are <4% of World Equities) rose 2%. US Bond aggregates were up over 2%, though international (non UK/US/Aus) bonds dropped 1%. So your market benchmark very much depended on which markets you are benchmarked against. But the top does seem to have come off the US S&P ‘bubble’… let’s see how it unfolds in the next few weeks.

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Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins

Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January?

We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t remember the details.

Of course January saw President Trump inaugurated. Which was something of a Spinal Tap moment because, if we thought his media volume level was loud beforehand, it has ramped up to 11/10 subsequently.

On the eve of the inauguration, we saw the Gaza ceasefire. One month later, the ceasefire has held – which is something I suppose. The Israelis are adamant this isn’t a peace – presumably as the Koreans were too back in 1953 – and the mood remains febrile.

Very sadly LA saw the most expensively damaging forest fires on US record. I am a huge fan of LA, and was horrified to hear the fire reached only a few metres away from the Getty Museum – one of my favourite buildings. Thankfully it appears to have been one of the best designed buildings too.

Here in the UK, aside from the Musk politics nonsense, the main theme has been economic growth – or rather the lack of it. The chancellor Reeves has come out fighting, with a raft of pretty proactive announcements such as supporting a third runway at LHR, green lighting the “positive economic outlook – “Ox-Cam arc”, and so on. I take her less and less seriously, but await Labour’s proposed planning reforms with interest.

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My exits – a post mortem

Readers will know that I dabble with active investing – I pick stocks.

Lord, make me passive, but not yet

Rather like The Investor at Monevator, I firmly believe in the merits of low cost index tracking as an investment strategy, but I also enjoy the thrills / intellectual excitement of deviating from the true path.

Over the years I have owned dozens of ‘single line’ stocks. These days, partly due to my competing desire to reduce complexity, I have a rather simpler portfolio with ‘only’ around 25 single company holdings.

One question I have wondered about for a while is: what happened to those stocks I used to own, but have ‘exited’? Was I right to exit them? Are the stocks I continue to hold better than the ones I used to own?

A full analysis of this question is beyond the scope of my blog or, for that matter, my abilities.

But let’s start with Facebook.

Continue reading “My exits – a post mortem”