Tag: investing

Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs

FIRE v London5 Comments

What’s in the news?

Talking about the news in March, given what’s been happing on the tariff front over the last few weeks, seems a bit pointless.

We entered March with a lot of drama about Ukraine, and some notable ‘ceasefire’ activity on the diplomatic front.

We finished March waiting for ‘liberation day’, April 2nd, when Trump unleashed a basically bonkers cocktail of tariffs on every country in the world – except Russia, of course.

What’s going on with me?

In the meantime, life goes on.

I attended a funeral of a long time friend and neighbour in north London.

I visited a rather bizarre concert in the Royal Festival Hall.

And I visited hospital for my first MRI scan, participating in a clinical research programme at University College London Hospital. I was impressed, I have to say, and grateful that I live within relatively easy reach of this excellent hospital.

I also visited Dorset – Studland to be precise – and went yomping up to Old Harry Rocks, the start of the Jurassic Coast. It’s a beautiful part of the world, and less than 3 hours from London Waterloo.

Markets in March

My markets’ movements in March 2025

Markets generally drooped in March, particularly the US’s S&P500. Enthusiasm/animal spirits from Trump’s election win are being replaced by trepidation / concern about Trump not being good for the US economy after all. The dollar, and the AUD, fell against the pound.

Continue reading “Mar ’25: Anticipating tariffs” →

Feb ’25: The top comes off

FIRE v LondonLeave a comment

What’s in the news?

The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it.

From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened

  • Tariffs. Lots of chat, lots of yo-yoing. Not good for larger businesses, possibly quite good for smaller ones?
  • War, lots of yo-yoing. Might it/they stop? Or might Russia become more terrifying?
  • Defence spending is clearly going up, though I suspect by less than the claimed amounts.
  • Longer term, the life of the US Dollar as reserve currency has shortened.

What’s going on with me?

My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city with the most caves (anybody know?), I had a short break in the Canaries, I enjoyed some time on the South Coast, I went to a play in East London. Busy, good busy.

Markets in Feb

Vanguard World Equities (VWRL) fell 3.5% in February, but UK Equities (which are <4% of World Equities) rose 2%. US Bond aggregates were up over 2%, though international (non UK/US/Aus) bonds dropped 1%. So your market benchmark very much depended on which markets you are benchmarked against. But the top does seem to have come off the US S&P ‘bubble’… let’s see how it unfolds in the next few weeks.

Continue reading “Feb ’25: The top comes off” →

Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins

FIRE v London1 Comment

Was it just me, or was the media relentless in January?

We had a remarkable fracas about the so-called “Pakistani grooming gangs” scandal here in the UK, with Elon Musk weighing in. At the time it seemed remarkable but one month later, as I write this, I am pleased to say I can’t remember the details.

Of course January saw President Trump inaugurated. Which was something of a Spinal Tap moment because, if we thought his media volume level was loud beforehand, it has ramped up to 11/10 subsequently.

On the eve of the inauguration, we saw the Gaza ceasefire. One month later, the ceasefire has held – which is something I suppose. The Israelis are adamant this isn’t a peace – presumably as the Koreans were too back in 1953 – and the mood remains febrile.

Very sadly LA saw the most expensively damaging forest fires on US record. I am a huge fan of LA, and was horrified to hear the fire reached only a few metres away from the Getty Museum – one of my favourite buildings. Thankfully it appears to have been one of the best designed buildings too.

Here in the UK, aside from the Musk politics nonsense, the main theme has been economic growth – or rather the lack of it. The chancellor Reeves has come out fighting, with a raft of pretty proactive announcements such as supporting a third runway at LHR, green lighting the “positive economic outlook – “Ox-Cam arc”, and so on. I take her less and less seriously, but await Labour’s proposed planning reforms with interest.

Continue reading “Jan ’25: Trump 2.0 begins” →