Category: Investment returns

June saw UK’s former PM Mr Johnson leave parliament. Good riddance. I suspect we haven’t seen or (definitely) read the last of him but having him out of Westminster is at least a bit safer than him inside.

Closer to (my Coastal Folly) home, there has been a sad story in Bournemouth of two tourists being killed swimming near Bournemouth pier. After a lot of huffing and puffing about manslaughter, it appears as if it was an act of nature via a rip tide. A reminder of the respect we need to have for all water – especially around the coasts. I’ve had quite a bit of coastal action in June and I am finding it to be a rewarding new side to my life.

June was apparently the hottest June, globally, on record. That certainly wasn’t exactly what it felt like in England. Though a June highlight for me was a trip to Royal Ascot where it was certainly hot enough for me – and I wasn’t even wearing a top hat.

And from a market point of view, it feels like the wider themes of the year continue.

• Inflation is dropping, but too slowly in the UK. Interest rates are continuing to rise as a consequence, which is pushing the pound up (as I write this, in July, we are at £1:$1.31 – this is a factor the swivel-eyed Torygraph/Trussite factionalists completely ignore) and causing a lot of squealing about mortgage costs. The US seems to be ahead of the curve here, never having had the same spike in energy costs as Europe saw, with inflation now down to around 3%.
• UK doom/gloom-mongering. This sentiment is so widespread that even I, never the most optimistic person about our policymakers, am starting to feel the doom/gloom has been overdone. It feels like the only clear fix for the mood rot that has set in will be a general election that throws the Tories out. But that might just be my north London friends’ bubble.
• Tech firms continuing to rebound, dragging the S&P up with them. How I am cursing losing my bottle on META six months ago, and not quite investing in TSLA at $125 in January. Ho hum.

Selected tech mega-cap stocks, YTD

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May has been election month.

In the UK, some (but not all – and not London) local councils had elections. The Tories took a drubbing, as expected.

And overseas the notable election seemed to be Turkey, where autocratic Erdogan won (however fairly) another five year term – taking him into his third decade.

Australia has been transfixed by a war crimes defamation case.

And in the UK, doom and gloom about the UK and its stockmarket continued. Inflation is now clearly falling – the latest figures show 8.1%. However, given that energy prices are now dropping, the fall in UK inflation is less than the Bank of England anticipated, with food in particular showing steep double digit increases continuing. UK interest rates are up to 4.5% but, with this level still far below the rate of inflation, are expected to increase at least a couple more times. It still makes sense to borrow money and invest in inflation-proof assets – though don’t try this at home.

Continue reading “May ’23: Magic megatech” →

April saw the season of long weekends begin here in the UK.

Easter saw me inspired by the Ermine to check out Dorset’s Chesil beach. We struck lucky with the weather and had a fine, distinctly non-London, time, over a very blustery Easter weekend. My walking shoes seem to have shrunk and after a 15km yomp what happened to my toes doesn’t make for blog-suitable content. Maybe I should stick to London after all, where such tribulations don’t seem to happen.

The economy seems to keep inflating along. Inflation has ‘dropped’ to 10.1%, latest figures show. Which really has you wondering what happens to interest rates. Rates seem high right now, but in the real world they are barely half of the rate of inflation. Something has to give – will it be inflation dropping as energy ‘laps’ last year’s price rises, or will wages chase inflation upwards pulling the Bank of England with them? Or will policymakers find ways to prolong this inflationary period, to deflate the country’s record high level of national debt? Time will tell.

Continue reading “Apr ’23: Wind and windfalls” →