Category: Investment returns

For some reason shoplifting is in the news. There’s evidently an epidemic of it. Not just in the UK, but wider afield too – hence major brands pulling out of cities like San Francisco. From what I hear there is a general increase in antisocial behaviour, dating from the covid-19 pandemic roughly speaking. I’m not sure what is going on but it isn’t sounding good.

Perhaps this is what explains two recent incidents in the UK – neither in London thankfully. The UK’s wonkiest pub was, allegedly, burnt down by its new owners. And just a few days ago one of the UK’s most famous/photographed trees was chopped down by a vandal.

Here in London I haven’t myself particularly experienced this epidemic of antisocial behaviour. Do I live in a bubble, or is London itself somehow avoiding it? Or is it all media hype? I don’t believe the latter.

Markets in September

Meanwhile, in the markets, it isn’t antisocial behaviour exactly but nor is it very social. Markets were generally down in September. UK equities were up, but only when viewed in pounds – which fell significantly in September.

The blended market average dropped 3%, in local currencies. Foreign currencies gained 2.2% vs the GBP, so the wider market only dropped 0.9% in GBP.

My portfolio in September

My portfolio dropped a bit more than that: 1.3%. Given my leverage and my tech exposure (AMZN dropped 8%, for instance), I am where I expected to be.

I made miserable progress repaying my margin loan in September. I have some excuses, but I am not feeling very happy about the situation. My annual interest costs are too high. I finish the month a bit overweight on USA equities, a bit underweight on EUR/Asian equities, and with too large a loan. Thankfully my loan is mostly in GBP – so is falling in value versus global market.

Appendix: In the media

A belated write-up of the month of August.

Thinking back a month, two stories pop out for me.

One was the death of Russian mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin – a larger-than-life modern day warlord, responsible for the ‘little green men’ at the start of the Russian/Ukraine war in 2014, the troll farms that may well have influenced both the Trump election and the Brexit referendum, several regime changes in Africa and a bizarre rebellion in Russia just (in fact, exactly) two months earlier.

The second story was the long awaited expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) rules across the whole of London. This means that polluting vehicles (about 1 in 6 in recently expanded areas) must pay £12.50 every day that they drive. The ULEZ started many years ago – under a certain Mr B Johnson as London mayor in fact – and saw some grumbling but nothing unexpected when it expanded into my area a few years back. But the expansion to London’s outskirts – 20 miles from the centre – set off a political storm when it caused an upset in the Uxbridge by-election (caused by that same Mr Johnson’s latest antics), and since then the politics of environmentally-driven policies have been upended. There will be more repercussions attributed to the ULEZ and that Uxbridge byelection, I’m certain.

My August

August saw an influx of overseas visitors. A highlight was a trip to The Hut restaurant on the Isle of Wight, which is London prices and service levels in a fantastic coastal setting.

I also managed a bit of walking on the south coast, near Weymouth.

Continue reading “Aug ’23: ULEZ expansion, market contraction” →

It’s been a dismally wet July here in London. About 50% more rainfall than normal (which, before ye scoff, isn’t that much – London is a fairly dry city – drier than Rome and much drier than Sydney). It has been long trousers weather, for the first time in several years. But at least the evenings have been long.

I’ve managed to spend a bit of time on the south coast. Over in Dorset and even getting over to the Isle of Wight.

The political weather has changed considerably too. We had three Tory by-elections, with each won by a different party – i.e. the Tories lost two out of the three. But the big news has been the one, Uxbridge (the former PM Johnson’s former constituency), on the north west of London that the Tories hung on to by a whisker. Their “success” was attributed to their exploitation of Uxbridge disaffection with the impending expansion of the low emission zone (a scheme introduced by, erm, Johnson when is was Mayor of London) to include Uxbridge. This supposedly signals the high water mark for Net Zero political consensus in the UK.

Continue reading “July ’23: Markets up, Coutts down” →