Feb ’25: The top comes off

What’s in the news?

The Trump, is in the news. He gets more than enough coverage without me adding to it.

From the point of view of what affects portfolios like mine, a few things happened

  • Tariffs. Lots of chat, lots of yo-yoing. Not good for larger businesses, possibly quite good for smaller ones?
  • War, lots of yo-yoing. Might it/they stop? Or might Russia become more terrifying?
  • Defence spending is clearly going up, though I suspect by less than the claimed amounts.
  • Longer term, the life of the US Dollar as reserve currency has shortened.

What’s going on with me?

My personal life was quite busy in February. I visited the UK city with the most caves (anybody know?), I had a short break in the Canaries, I enjoyed some time on the South Coast, I went to a play in East London. Busy, good busy.

Markets in Feb

Vanguard World Equities (VWRL) fell 3.5% in February, but UK Equities (which are <4% of World Equities) rose 2%. US Bond aggregates were up over 2%, though international (non UK/US/Aus) bonds dropped 1%. So your market benchmark very much depended on which markets you are benchmarked against. But the top does seem to have come off the US S&P ‘bubble’… let’s see how it unfolds in the next few weeks.

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