2018’s goals and January 2018’s returns

So, my normal blogging rhythm has been slowing down a bit.  Time for a quick catch-up.

January’s come and gone, and I haven’t even written up my investing goals for the year.

First of all, what’s been going on in January?

The Trump tax cuts may have technically been passed in December but it feels as if markets in January have been dominated by them.  I confess to being surprised, and pleased, to see a variety of US businesses committing to pass through some of the tax cuts to their employees – e.g. Walmart, Boeing, JP Morgan, AT&T, Disney, Home Depot and others.  This all looks quite positive for US stocks, the US economy, and probably thus world trade.

It is thus not too surprising that world equities are up, and the US dollar has fallen over 5% vs the pound.  Surely a good month to be in the UK?  Alas not, as FTSE has fallen over 2% while S&P is up over 5%.  Brits have been better holding S&P than FTSE, not for the first time.

2018 01 FvL markets

Continue reading “2018’s goals and January 2018’s returns”

2017 Q4 review: top trumps?

It’s the end of the final quarter. More importantly for me, it’s also the end of the fifth year of my portfolio tracking. In the world of asset management, once your track record has five years you are getting on the map.  So how are we looking?

How was December?

Well, starting with December, what happened?  Equities had a good month – particularly the UK where FTSE-100 rallied in the closing days with a fine Santa Rally.  There wasn’t much to report on forex or bonds.  In constant currencies, the markets I’m in rose by 2.85%; currencies then added a 0.2% tailwind, so the blended market average for my portfolio was a gain of 3.0%.  A good month to be in the markets.

2017 12 FvL Market returns

Against a market gain of 3%, December looks actually quite disappointing for me.  My portfolio rose ‘only’ 1.7%.  Why the lag?  I’m not sure; it may be a clerical error because it was all in one of my accounts, but I haven’t had a chance to drill into it. I’m still not complaining about a monthly gain of 1.7%.

How was the full year?

Looking at the wider market during 2017, it has been a very good year for investors.

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Nov 2017: The King is gone.

Without meaningful term limits, the tyrant just went on and on. Well into his dotage, he seemed to have become preoccupied with furthering his dynasty by handing over power to his family.  And to preserving the family billions.  As his grip on power finally began to slip, the superficial stability of his regime visibly crumbled, replaced by an excited whooping and baying by the masses.  A mighty era, ending, this very month?

In fact, Rupert Murdoch remains in power for now. But the rumours are that the dirty digger may sell critical parts of his empire – studios, newspapers etc.

Slightly closer to home, Robert Mugabe is gone.  The king is dead, almost.  And good riddance.  I’ve held off visiting Zimbabwe until he’s gone and now the place has just opened up for me.  Except that his thuggish henchman, by all accounts, has replaced him with the full support of the army.  I may be waiting a little longer.

Meanwhile, out in the markets, what’s been happening?  Supposedly Brexit is all starting to come together, notwithstanding the not-very-minor issue of the only land border between the UK and the EU.  Certainly the forex markets cheered both the EU and the UK, with GBP up to a level it hasn’t seen since its steep Brexit slide. Meanwhile US markets continued their relentless upward glide, providing a benign backdrop for the bitcoin hysteria.

Continue reading “Nov 2017: The King is gone.”