Updating my target allocation

The key to my investment philosophy is having a target asset allocation.  Ideally, this allocation hardly changes – perhaps a slight shift towards bonds and away from equities every year as the Grim Reaper approaches, but aside from that nothing significant. In practice, it’s time for a quick update to the allocation.

The main trigger for my allocation update, to coin Harold Wilson’s phrase, is: events, dear boy, events.  The portfolio I let a private bank manage for me was restructured last year, and left me with significantly more US exposure and less UK exposure than before.  And almost every asset class gained a lot last year, measured in pounds, so being levered proved to be a significant boon.  While I could rebalance, I want to consider whether my target allocation is still right.

My old allocation had UK equities and US equities equally weighted.  This left, when you factored in my bonds allocation, the UK at a target weight of 35%, and the US only slightly higher at 40%.  And my old allocation had bonds:equity  at 29%:71% – an equity-friendly mix, to be sure, but with a very significant minority of bonds.

Looking at my old allocation from current perspectives, I want to make some changes.

Continue reading “Updating my target allocation”

Wellcome inspiration: a 10 point checklist

The Wellcome Trust caught the news this week. Its claims to fame this year include:

  • It is the world’s second biggest charity (behind Bill & Melinda Gates).
  • It has donated over £1bn last year.
  • Its boss, Danny Truell, is the UK’s highest earner in the charity sector. His pay rose £1m to £3m last year on the back of excellent five year investment returns.

Continued outstanding performance

I first studied the Wellcome Trust in 2012. At that point it had about £14bn under management, and about 20 investment professionals.

The Trust has just posted strong investment returns of 19pc, takings its assets up £3.5bn to £20bn. Managed by 25 people.  I’d say its boss is earning his pay.

Last year’s excellent results were largely because the Trust made an strategic decision about a year ago to downweight its sterling exposure. Apparently normally it wants at least 25pc UK exposure, but sometime pre-referendum it decided to waive that requirement. Its assessment was that the Brexit risks were asymmetric, with much greater downside than upside. This was a very similar perspective to my own call in January this year, which has served me very well too. I’d love to know how exactly they implemented the shifts involved as it isn’t easy to do without trading costs.

The fund has compounded over 15% since 1985.  This is astonishing performance, of a Buffett-beating level. Over time the Trust has consistently outperformed the market, without running extra risk.

A Wellcome Trust 10 point scorecard

My assessment of the Trust highlights 10 characteristics it follows. Many of them I share, but not all.  These ten points are as follows (apologies if you’re reading this on a smartphone!): Continue reading “Wellcome inspiration: a 10 point checklist”